Stock Market Update – The Big Picture and Market Pulse

Amid the barrage of tariff news, equities continued higher this week. While the focus was primarily on trade and earnings, economic data provided some needed reassurance as well.

The NASDAQ surged 3.9% this week, eclipsing its record high and closing within a point of the record set less than two weeks earlier. The S&P 500 added 2.4%, and the Dow gained 1.4%, regaining some ground lost in a sell-off last week.

On the trade front, President Trump sent letters to 14 countries warning them that their products would face 25% tariffs if they did not reach deals by August 1st. He also signaled that he was close to a deal with Japan and reported that the EU was making progress as well. These developments lifted investor sentiment and boosted GE Vernova shares, which climbed 14.5% after raising guidance.

The yield curve flattened with 2yrs up 5bps and the long end down a similar amount, providing some reassurance that the economy is still growing at a reasonable pace. Investors could have some concerns about consumer demand if tariffs lead to higher prices for items that consumers typically buy during the back-to-school and holiday shopping seasons.

It’s important to stay on top of stock market news, especially when the trend starts to change. If you notice a large number of distribution days clustered together, this can be a sign that institutional investors are starting to sell aggressively. Keep an eye on The Big Picture and Market Pulse to help you recognize these warning signs and adjust your recommended market exposure accordingly.